Montana's Odds Of A White Christmas This Year

Well, Halloween is behind us. Now it’s almost that time again. Christmas. Yes, we’re already talking about putting up the Christmas lights.

One of the biggest topics each year in Montana is if it will be cold enough to snow (on the ground) when Santa arrives.

Men's Journal recently published a study on the probability of having a white Christmas across all 50 U.S. states. They used historical climate data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). They also found that Montana's probabilities may be less than you thought they would be.

White Christmas Probabilities Lower Than Expected in Montana

Historical weather data from the National Weather Service suggests that Montana has approximately a 44.8 percent probability of a white Christmas (based on NOAA's definition of a white Christmas).

christmas village wallpaper — Photo by Roberto Nickson on Unsplash

While Montana is considered to be among the top 10 states with high white Christmas probabilities (the other 9 states include Idaho, Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Vermont, New Hampshire), its probability of a white Christmas is just slightly higher than flipping a coin.

Important Note: Before any residents in Missoula begin whining about the low probability of a white Christmas, please keep in mind that the above-mentioned percentage was derived using historical climate data collected at Billings Logan International Airport. As most people in Montana know, Billings' weather patterns can me much different compared to what is happening in Western Montana.

a couple of snowmen that are in the snow — Photo by hey Illust on Unsplash

One area in Montana may experience no snow cover, while another part of the state experiences 1-2 feet of snow. Additionally, according to NOAA, a white Christmas requires at least one inch of measurable snowfall on the ground on Dec. 25th. Several snowflakes falling during your holiday party do not qualify.

El Niño May Influence This Year's Weather Patterns

The article stated that a strong El Nino event may affect winter weather conditions throughout many areas of the United States. According to NOAA's seasonal forecast; the agency predicts that warm temperatures (warmer than normal) will occur across the northern United States, as well as dry conditions in the northern Rocky Mountains.

These predictions are not looking good for your friends who love to ski.

I have witnessed my fair share of unseasonable snow storms develop quickly and surprise everyone involved. Which is why I believe it is best to remain skeptical regarding any predictions regarding a possible snow storm that occurs prior to two full months before Christmas. You know how the saying goes? "If you don't like the weather, just wait a minute."